PetroChina (601857): Moderate upward performance of oil prices or continuous improvement

PetroChina (601857): Moderate upward performance of oil prices or continuous improvement

Event: The company released the 2018 annual report, the report was consolidated, and the company realized operating income of 23535.

880,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

75%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 525.

8.5 billion, an increase of 130 per year.

71%; realized non-net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 661.

95 ppm, an increase of 147 per year.

20%.

EPS is 0.

29 yuan / share, the net operating cash flow is 3515.

65 ppm, expected increase in average net asset return4.

4%.

18Q4 performance was dragged down by the sharp fall in oil prices.

According to the company’s announcement, the net profit attributable to mothers in the fourth quarter of 2018 is expected to be 44.

6.4 billion, and the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in Q1 to Q3 2018 was 101.

50 billion, 169.

36 billion and 210.

3.5 billion, the performance will be greatly reduced.

The main reasons are: (1) Oil price plummeted: According to wind information, the average price of Brent crude oil in Q1 2018 to Q4 2018 was 67.

31/74.

92/75.

91/59.

32 US dollars / barrel. The sharp drop in oil prices in Q4 of 2018 led to a decline in profits in the upstream sector. At the same time, the decline in oil prices is expected to cause the company to generate a certain inventory 杭州夜网 loss benefit.

(2) Weakening profitability of the chemical sector in the downward cycle of oil prices: According to our calculations, in 2018Q1-Q4, the comprehensive split of naphtha was 149/94/93/50 / tonne respectively, and the 18Q4 price gap narrowed significantly. The main reasonIt is in the oil price decline channel that product demand tends to increase vulnerability and cost collapse, which causes product prices to fall to a greater extent than costs and to narrow the spread.

(3) Assets impaired performance: According to the company’s announcement, the company performed a total of 344 assets impairment in the fourth quarter.

2.7 billion, of which 40 was the loss of inventory depreciation.

800 million, impairment loss on fixed assets and paint assets was 266.

600 million, the loss of inventory caused by falling oil 杭州桑拿网 prices and the impairment of oil and gas assets are the main sources.

Crude oil is expected to usher in a short-cycle supply and demand resonance, oil prices may rise moderately, and the company’s profit may continue to improve.

In developing countries, due to multiple factors such as demand constraints caused by the sharp decline in U.S. stocks and the uncertainty of supply-side production cuts, the price of cloth oil once reached $ 50 a barrel, and oil prices fell deeply.

Broad money that exceeds market expectations may gradually shift to credit. The expected growth rate of the market may not gradually expand. US stocks rebounded. OPEC + on-time excess production cuts and other factors boosted. Oil prices have rebounded from the bottom by nearly 42%.

In the short term, the crude oil market may usher in supply and demand resonance, and oil prices may continue to rise moderately.

Supply side: OPEC may extend production cut agreement.

OPEC and Russia and other non-OPEC oil producing countries have promised to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day from the beginning in order to reduce supply and support oil prices.

The Union’s oil chief will be in Vienna on April 17-18 for an antique conference on production policy.

As Saudi Arabia and other countries may complain about high oil prices, the production cut agreement may be extended.

(2) Demand side: The demand from developing countries is strong, and the United States has ushered in the peak demand season in the second quarter.

In the first two months of 2019, the world’s largest importer, China, used more crude oil than in the same period last year.

1%, reaching a record 12.68 million barrels per day, still showing high growth.Due to the current low season of US crude oil consumption, the operating rate of US refineries is still not high, or it will usher in an upward operating rate in the second quarter, and the demand for crude oil will increase month-on-month.

At the inventory end, due to the short-term resonance of the supply side, we expect that the US commercial crude oil inventory may be in a de-cycling cycle, and crude oil prices will still be in a modest growth trend.

After the oil price has experienced a sharp rebound and is in a mild upward trend, the company’s upstream sector profits are highly resilient to oil prices. We measure its performance elasticity through two sizes: (1) Without considering cost increases (only considering resource taxes)According to our calculations, for every US $ 10 increase in oil distribution, the company’s upstream sector can increase net profit by 42.8 billion; (2) Considering the upward cost, we estimate that when the oil distribution price is 55/65/75/85 USD / barrel, the company shouldThe operating profit of the sector was 136/208/658/1022 trillion, and the performance of the upstream sector was significantly elastic.

Capital expenditure is still increasing, and national energy security still needs to be guaranteed.

According to the company’s announcement, the company expects that capital expenditures in 2019 will reach 300.6 billion, an increase of 17%, which is basically the same as the growth rate in 2018. The company’s capital expenditures have been reduced due to the sharp fall in oil prices in the fourth quarter of last year.

From the breakdown of capital expenditure, exploration and production of 228.2 billion (+ 16%), refining and chemical 28.8 billion (154%), sales of 14.6 billion (-14%) and natural gas and pipelines of 17.8 billion (-33%).
The company’s capital expenditure direction is focused on upstream crude oil exploration and production, midstream refinery and chemical intermediates.

The increase in upstream capital expenditures is expected to ensure the production of crude oil, reduce the dependence of crude oil on foreign countries, and ensure national energy security.

The performance of the natural gas sector has greatly increased, and gas prices may further bring about performance elasticity.

The natural gas industry ushered in an inflection point in 2016 and has entered a golden decade of rapid development.

Driven by the “coal-to-gas” policy and the continuous advancement of the marketization of gas prices, the industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 10% in the future. The high demand will bring the industry’s long-term prosperity.

In 2018, the company’s natural gas and pipeline segment achieved operating income of 255.

15 ppm, an increase of 62 in ten years.

6%, the sector’s performance growth rate achieved high growth.

The core reason is the increase in domestic gas prices and sales volume, while imported gas still drags down the performance of this sector.

In 2017 and 2018, the company’s natural gas import substitution was 240 ppm and 249, respectively.

07 million US dollars, expected to increase by 9 million US dollars in 2018 compared to 2017, mainly due to the high cost of imported gas and the elasticity of the price of residential natural gas offset.

With the gradual smoothing of natural gas prices, the price of natural gas for residential use has become elastic, and the imported gas sector is expected to reduce losses.

Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 538 in 2019-2021.

18, 589.

00, 711.

870,000 yuan, an annual increase of 2.

35%, 9.

44%, 20.

86%; corresponding EPS is 0.

29, 0.

32, 0.

39 yuan, corresponding to PE is 27 times, 24 times and 20 times.

Risk alert events: the risk of a significant decline in oil prices and the risk of a significant decline in product prices.